As India’s telecom sector moves into 2026, the focus is shifting decisively from network rollout to monetisation, diversification, and long-term sustainability. After years of intense competition, heavy capital expenditure, and industry consolidation, operators are entering a phase where returns on investment, differentiated access technologies, and digital infrastructure partnerships will define success. From satellite connectivity and fixed wireless access to tariff discipline and AI-led infrastructure expansion, 2026 is set to be a pivotal year for the industry.
Satellite connectivity moves from promise to pilots
After years of policy uncertainty, satellite communication is finally edging closer to commercial reality in India. The government’s decision to allocate, rather than auction, satcom spectrum cleared a major regulatory hurdle, even if it left service providers uneasy. Players including Starlink, Jio-SES, Eutelsat OneWeb and BSNL-Viasat are now lining up launches, though commercial services have been delayed by the allocation of provisional spectrum that cannot yet be used for full-scale operations.
In 2026, the first meaningful satcom offerings are expected to emerge. Rather than competing head-on with mobile broadband, satellite players are likely to bundle services with terrestrial networks, positioning satcom as a complementary layer rather than a substitute.
Fixed wireless access becomes the flagship 5G use case
If one 5G use case has clearly broken through in India, it is Fixed Wireless Access (FWA). By bypassing the cost and complexity of fibre deployment, FWA has given operators a faster route to monetising 5G investments, especially in under-served urban clusters and smaller towns.
According to GlobalData forecasts, India’s FWA connections are expected to grow at over 21 percent CAGR over the next five years, reaching more than 21 million by the end of the decade. Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel have aggressively expanded their 5G FWA offerings since the launch of services in 2023, with Jio currently holding a clear lead in subscriber numbers. Vodafone Idea, by contrast, has chosen to focus exclusively on mobile users for now, leaving the FWA race largely to the top two players.
In 2026, competition in FWA will intensify further as operators refine pricing, improve customer premises equipment, and push deeper into semi-urban markets where fibre economics remain challenging.
ARPU growth and tariff discipline take centre stage
After nearly a decade of price erosion, 2025 marked a turning point for average revenue per user in India. The discontinuation of ultra-low entry-level prepaid plans and a round of tariff hikes helped private operators post meaningful ARPU growth.
This focus will sharpen further in 2026. With large capital investments already sunk into 5G and fibre, operators are under pressure to improve returns. Industry watchers expect another phase of calibrated tariff increases, particularly if Reliance Jio proceeds with its planned IPO. Any upward move by Jio is likely to be mirrored by Airtel, reinforcing a more rational pricing environment.
Rather than chasing raw subscriber numbers, operators are expected to double down on higher-value users, premium plans, bundled services and enterprise customers.
AI fuels digital infrastructure investments
India’s telecom story in 2026 will increasingly overlap with its data centre, cloud and AI ambitions. Global hyperscalers and domestic conglomerates are pouring billions into digital infrastructure, driven by surging demand for AI workloads, enterprise cloud adoption and data localisation.
Large-scale investments by players such as Google, Amazon and Meta are accelerating the build-out of data centres, while telecom operators are positioning themselves as critical partners in connectivity, edge computing and interconnection. Subsea cables and cable landing stations are also gaining prominence, with new facilities coming online to support India’s growing role as a regional data hub.
For telcos, these investments represent an opportunity to move up the value chain—from connectivity providers to infrastructure and platform partners.
The Jio IPO and Vodafone Idea’s crossroads
One of the most closely watched events of 2026 will be Reliance Jio’s anticipated IPO, which could become the largest listing in Indian market history. Beyond valuation headlines, the IPO could reshape competitive dynamics by funding global expansion, accelerating digital infrastructure investments, and reinforcing Jio’s long-term strategy.
At the same time, Vodafone Idea enters another make-or-break year. Recent judicial relief allowing reassessment of its massive AGR dues has provided temporary breathing space, but operational recovery remains uncertain. How 2026 unfolds may determine whether India sustains a three-player private telecom market or slides further toward a duopoly.
Indian telecom vendors look outward
2026 may also mark a shift for Indian telecom vendors on the global stage. Reliance Jio is targeting the global market to export its homegrown 5G stack and Tata Group’s successful rollout of BSNL’s 4G network has strengthened its credentials as a systems integrator.
