India’s telecom and pay-TV sector is poised for steady growth over the next five years, with revenue expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% from $46.3 billion in 2024 to $61.9 billion by 2029, according to GlobalData’s latest India Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report. The expansion is largely underpinned by robust demand for mobile data and fixed broadband services, even as traditional voice and pay-TV segments continue to contract.
The report highlights a clear shift in revenue mix. Mobile voice service revenue is forecast to decline over the period, reflecting the growing preference among Indian consumers for OTT and internet-based communication services, as well as unlimited voice minutes bundled into mobile plans that compress Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for traditional voice offerings. In contrast, mobile data service revenue is expected to rise at a CAGR of 10.6% between 2024 and 2029. This growth is driven by expanding smartphone and mobile internet subscriptions—especially across 4G and 5G networks—and by higher adoption of tiered 5G packages, bundled content, and premium plans that command higher ARPUs.
“4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions until 2027. 5G subscriptions will then surpass 4G and go on to account for 59.4% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2029 driven by ongoing 5G network expansions by mobile operators,” notes Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData. Over the next few years, as network coverage and 5G-ready device penetration continue to improve, unlimited 5G data plans offered by major carriers are expected to further catalyse data consumption and adoption.
The fixed communications segment is also undergoing transformation. Fixed voice service revenues are projected to decline through 2029 due to decreasing ARPU levels and operators increasingly offering unlimited voice with broadband plans. In contrast, fixed broadband service revenue is expected to show sustained growth, supported by rising demand for high-speed internet and a growing subscriber base, particularly across fibre and fixed wireless access (FWA) technologies. The introduction and expansion of 5G-enabled FWA offerings, such as Reliance Jio’s AirFiber and Bharti Airtel’s Xstream AirFiber launched in 2023, are anticipated to broaden broadband access, especially in areas with limited fibre infrastructure.
India’s broader telecom market dynamics reflect this transition. The country continues to demonstrate strong momentum in digital connectivity and infrastructure expansion. In 2025, 5G network rollout reached approximately 85% of the population, significantly enhancing mobile broadband capabilities across urban and rural regions and supporting growth in data revenue. Meanwhile, the country’s broadband subscriber base has been steadily rising, with around 2.05 crore new broadband users added in the year through March 2025, underscoring robust demand for high-speed internet services.
At the same time, pay-TV revenues are projected to fall over the forecast period. The decline is attributed to continued subscriber migration from traditional cable and direct-to-home (DTH) platforms toward OTT video services, where India’s active user base has reached around 601 million users, and connected TV adoption is surging.
GlobalData’s analysis also points to competitive dynamics in the service provider landscape. Reliance Jio is forecast to maintain leadership in both mobile services and fixed broadband market share through 2029, leveraging extensive 4G coverage and ongoing 5G network development to cater to the rising demand for high-speed services. “It will also maintain its leadership in fixed broadband segment through 2029, driven by its strong position in the fiber segment and strong focus on the countrywide expansion of the JioFiber network,” Mahananda adds, underscoring the strategic role of infrastructure investment in shaping future revenue growth.
Against this backdrop of accelerating data consumption and infrastructure enhancement, India’s telecom ecosystem appears set to navigate the twin pressures of digital transformation and shifting consumer behaviour, with data and broadband emerging as core revenue engines for operators into the latter half of the decade.
